Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.