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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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