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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.